Over IRCG Erbil attack
Iraqi experts foresee limited UN response to Iraq’s complaint against Iran
BAGHDAD, 21 January — Legal experts and a research center analyst predict that the Iraqi government’s complaint to the United Nations against Iran for the recent ballistic missile attack in Erbil will likely result in a mere warning from the UN Security Council. According to these experts, the incident has not escalated to a diplomatic crisis between Iraq and Iran.
Following the attack, Iraq and Iran agreed last Thursday through political channels to reduce tensions, partly due to a more significant escalation with Pakistan, as reported by Western media outlets.
Despite the Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs submitting a protest note against Iran, its contents remain undisclosed. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani and Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein have expressed unprecedented criticism against Iran, accusing it of choosing a weaker target to export its internal issues.
At the Davos Forum, Al-Sudani described Iran as a strategic ally in the fight against ISIS. National Security Advisor Qasim Al-Aaraji, after meeting with the Iranian ambassador in Baghdad, agreed to resolve issues through understanding.
Legal experts, speaking to 964media, suggested that the evidence Iraq has gathered could strengthen its complaint against Iran, but it’s improbable to lead to more than an international warning. A researcher opined that Iraq has stepped back from escalation, focusing again on the deep ties between the two countries.
Ali Al-Tamimi, a legal expert, highlighted that security breaches by the US or Iran against Iraq violate the UN Charter’s Articles 1-2-3. He stated that Iraq’s ongoing investigation results would be presented to the UN Security Council to enhance the complaint against Iran, potentially leading to international sanctions under Charter Articles 39-52 if violations are repeated.
Another legal expert, Alaa Shown, said that Iraq’s complaint falls under the UN Charter’s fourth paragraph, which prohibits the use of force in political relations. He noted that Iraq directly approached the UN Security Council, bypassing other UN agencies, a move that could lead to new sanctions against Iran or a pledge from Tehran not to repeat its actions.
Ehsan Al-Shimmari, Head of the Iraqi Political Thinking Center, observed that Iraq’s response did not evolve into a diplomatic crisis, as Baghdad neither expelled the Iranian ambassador nor closed its embassy in Iran. He suggested that Iraq’s relations with Iran would return to their previous state, similar to the scenario after 2022 when the house of Sheikh Baz Barzinji was attacked in a similar manner and relations were normalized following an agreement.