Lebanese researcher Mustafa Fahs analyzes shifting Iran-Iraq dynamics

ERBIL — Lebanese researcher Mustafa Fahs discussed regional shifts and the impact of recent U.S.-Iran talks in a panel hosted by 964media chief Hiwa Osman on the sidelines of the 17th Erbil International Book Fair, which opened Wednesday.

Fahs addressed political developments in Lebanon and Iraq, tensions following last year’s Hezbollah-Israel conflict, and ongoing U.S.-Iranian negotiations. Below are key takeaways from their conversation:

Reflecting on Lebanon’s instability, Fahs said Beirut struggles to recover due to external forces as well as internal divisions.

“Beirut wants to recover, but the conditions for recovery are difficult—not just because of internal problems, but due to nearby and distant external factors,” Fahs said.

He said the recent Hezbollah-Israel war was a miscalculation by a Lebanese faction that allowed Israel to achieve its objectives. “Sadly, the outcome is a path we don’t support, but the enemy achieved all its goals,” he said. “I won’t say they won verbally, out of respect for the sacrifices and martyrs.”

Despite Lebanon’s recent moves to fill its presidential vacancy and the appointing of a new PM, Fahs emphasized the nation remains politically “disoriented.”

“The world has changed, but the ruling structure in Lebanon continues to resist change,” he added.

Fahs described a major shift in regional power dynamics following the Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire brokered by Washington in November 2024, stating that decisions about war now rest with the U.S., not Tehran.

“For a long time, the decision for war and peace in Lebanon wasn’t in our hands—it belonged to our brothers in Tehran,” he explained. “Today, though, that decision lies with Washington.”

He emphasized that Hezbollah’s perceived deterrent capability quickly unraveled during the conflict. “The illusions Iran sold to us—and to Hezbollah’s youth—were exposed and brutal,” Fahs said. “The strategic balance and deterrence equation that our Iranian brothers once spoke of collapsed in just 11 days.”

Discussing U.S.-Iran talks, Fahs said that the meeting scheduled for Muscat, Oman, was part of ongoing, rather than new, diplomatic efforts.

“They already met directly in a European country. There was another meeting in an Asian capital—not Muscat,” Fahs revealed. “The Muscat meeting isn’t the start, it’s a continuation—but not a conclusion.”

He warned both sides fear the repercussions of failing talks: “Neither the Iranians nor the Americans can declare negotiations have failed. Doing so would mean bearing catastrophic responsibility.”

According to Fahs, Lebanon’s political deadlock stems from tension between the post-1992 system and reforms demanded by the 2019 popular uprising. He highlighted debates about amending the 1989 Taif Agreement, which ended Lebanon’s civil war.

“Now, we’re hearing talk about revisiting the Taif Agreement—whether it needs amending or developing. A new Taif would be a terrifying scenario leading to civil war, but updating the old agreement is possible,” he said.

Drawing parallels with Iraq, Fahs said both countries face similar crises as their post-war political systems crumble in the face of popular movements like Iraq’s Tishreen protests.

“The 2003 system clashed with the Tishreen movement and failed to complete the transition. Attempts to rebuild the system also failed,” he said, noting that “Iraq and Lebanon share overlapping geopolitical terrain.”

Fahs emphasized that despite deep cultural and historical ties, Tehran cannot dominate Baghdad politically.

“Iran can’t abandon this ideological geography, but geopolitically, our brothers in Tehran must accept that Baghdad can’t be ruled by Iran—nor against it,” he said, referencing the historical 1639 Treaty of Zuhab, which delineated Persian and Ottoman spheres of influence.

Addressing religious dynamics, Fahs underscored Najaf’s autonomy from Iran’s religious leadership: “You can’t pit Qom against Najaf. Najaf is the origin, and Qom is the offshoot. Najaf is the mother, and it respects this offshoot deeply.”

Fahs described Lebanon’s Shi’a community as deeply fragmented after the recent conflict, calling it “a Shi’a catastrophe.”

“We can no longer say Shi’a faith and weapons go hand-in-hand,” he said. “This is a tragedy we haven’t seen in 1,400 years—since the origins of Shi’ism in Jabal Amel.”

Noting Hezbollah’s diminished influence, Fahs said the once-powerful group is now severely weakened: “Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah once absorbed crises through his persona. Now Hezbollah, as a historic force, no longer exists. All that’s left of the Amal Movement is Nabih Berri … whose organization is in decline.”

Fahs described Iraq’s situation as distinct from Lebanon’s, saying Iraqi Shi’a have less reliance on Iran due to their own religious, economic, and political resources.

“The more Iraqi Shi’a feel rooted in their national identity, the more sensitive they become toward anything that undermines it,” Fahs explained, pointing out that frustration with Iranian influence fueled the Tishreen protests.

The Tishreen movement, which began in October 2019 and continued until May 2021, arose in response to widespread economic hardship, corruption, high unemployment, poor public services, and government inefficiency. It became the largest mass protest in Iraq since the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003 and was notable for its independence from established political factions.

Despite Iraq’s predominantly Shi’a army, Fahs said Tehran maintains influence through the Popular Mobilization Forces, viewing them as its key guarantee. He expects the PMF’s status to figure prominently in U.S.-Iran negotiations.

“In Lebanon, weapons are discussed in connection with geography. In Iraq, it’s not the same, which makes the negotiations there more flexible than in Lebanon,” Fahs concluded.