Baghdad given chance to ‘handle’ militias before Trump inauguration

BAGHDAD — The Iraqi government has received assurances from Washington D.C. that neither Israel nor the United States will launch strikes in Iraq – including targets associated with the Popular Mobilization Forces and other Iranian proxy groups – during the transition period leading up to Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, 2025, according to a senior Iraqi official.

Talking to 964media, the official, who requested anonymity, said Baghdad was given guarantees in “the clearest language since the events of Oct. 7, 2023,” referring to the date Hamas led an attack on Israel, sparking a region-wide series of events that continue to reverberate across the Middle East.

Ongoing U.S.-Iraq consultations concluded with a commitment from Washington D.C. to prevent any military action against Iraqi targets, including PMF sites, throughout this sensitive period, says the official.

After Trump takes office, Iraq will need to adapt to potential shifts under a new U.S. administration, but Iraqi officials believe that successfully navigating the next few weeks will lead to a period of broader regional calm.

Some analysts suggest President-elect Donald Trump, once returned to office, would prioritize economic and diplomatic pressure over military intervention. However, Trump’s foreign policy stances are known for their eclecticism.

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani explicitly requested that U.S. guarantees cover “not only the Popular Mobilization Forces and official Iraqi security forces but also the headquarters and key figures of various Iraqi factions.”

The latest communication from D.C. reportedly included “the highest level of assurance over Iraq’s entire security landscape, including PMF sites and faction headquarters,” provided Iraqi factions continue to observe the quiet.

The source says the Biden administration has expressed a preference for allowing Al-Sudani’s government to handle Iraq’s internal security dynamics, rather than granting Israel its blessing for military action against targets in Iraq.

These reassurances coincide with another diplomatic development — Iraqi intelligence chief Hamid Al-Shatri’s recent visit to Syria in the first official Iraqi delegation to Damascus since the fall of the Al-Assad regime, where he met with de facto Syrian leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa, known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani.

The official noted that these developments have been accompanied by “a more cooperative tone” from Iraq’s many armed groups, including those affiliated with the PMF. Discussions surrounding the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq have become less confrontational, even though long-term plans for U.S. military presence in the region remain ambiguous.

Debate has flared in Iraq amid reports that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, during a surprise visit to Baghdad, allegedly urged the Iraqi government to dismantle the Popular Mobilization Forces and disband armed militia groups operating in the country. The reports suggest that Blinken also called for militia weapons to be transferred to state control and urged a reduction of Iran’s influence in Iraq.

The Popular Mobilization Forces, formed in 2014 in response to the Islamic State’s advances, is a coalition of predominately Shia militias. In 2016, the PMF was formally integrated into Iraq’s armed forces to ostensibly unify these groups under state control. Currently, the PMF is led by Faleh Al-Fayyad.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani has rejected foreign pressure to disband the PMF, stating, “It is unacceptable to make demands and impose conditions on Iraq, especially when it comes to dismantling the PMF.”

Abu Alaa Al-Walaei, leader of the Kataib Sayyid Al-Shuhada militia, one of Iraq’s most prominent armed groups, has also opposed calls to dissolve the Popular Mobilization Forces, claiming that the group remains a fundamental pillar of Iraq’s strength and stability.

The PMF recently stated that, “We are not concerned with those who slander and cast doubt, as we operate under the command of Joint Operations and the General Command of the Armed Forces,” adding, “The PMF Authority remains loyal to the religious authority, the martyr leaders, and everyone who supported us, including the Islamic Republic.”

‘Martyr leaders’ presumably refers to Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis and Qasem Soleimani, who were killed by U.S. strikes in Baghdad nearly five years ago.

On the ISIS issue, the official stressed that Iraq’s best strategy is to ensure that ISIS fighters remain confined in prisons and camps controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces.

“Stability between Turkish-backed factions and the SDF is essential to prevent the SDF from diverting resources away from securing ISIS prisons to focus on clashes with Turkish-backed groups,” the source added.

The Iraqi government expects an increased U.S. military presence in areas such as Al-Tanf and other regions of the Syrian desert, primarily at Jordan’s request, to maintain stability in the border areas. The U.S. already has a base at Al-Tanf, located in the ‘deconfliction zone’ on Syria’s borders with Iraq and Jordan.