Forecasters predict above-average rainfall as Iraq emerges from driest year since 1933

BAGHDAD – Iraq’s weather authority says early forecasts point to higher-than-usual rainfall at the end of autumn or start of winter, raising hopes for recovery after 2025 was described as the country’s driest year since 1933.

Amir Al-Jabri, media director of the General Authority for Meteorology, told state newspaper Al-Sabah that “the winter season promises good amounts of rain compared to the past two years.” He said 2024 and the beginning of 2025 saw above-average rainfall, though precipitation typically remains weak during early autumn due to pressure systems affecting the region.

He added that filling the country’s dams requires “abundant rainfall to restore part of the storage that was exhausted during years of scarcity,” and called for strategic planning by the Ministry of Water Resources to take advantage of any rainfall. Al-Jabri noted it was still too early to predict total quantities.

Iraq’s water reserves have dropped steeply in recent years, from 55 billion cubic meters in 2019 to less than four billion last month — only about 8% of total capacity. Officials warn that without careful management, a combination of climate change and upstream dam construction will further strain Iraq’s water resources and deepen desertification.

“Iraq is heavily affected by climate changes due to its lack of water surfaces, in addition to the dams that are being built one after another in upstream countries,” Al-Jabri said. “This makes the issue of water and desertification among the most pressing challenges that must be dealt with seriously to avert their destructive effects on the country.”

In July, Iraq’s Ministry of Water Resources warned the country was facing its worst drought since 1933, with reserves down to 8% of capacity after inflows to the Tigris and Euphrates fell to 27% of last year’s levels. Officials said the crisis, driven by climate change, low rainfall, and upstream dams, threatens water security and southern marshlands, while a water release deal with Turkey has yet to be implemented.