‘Iran will not be well’: analyst warns of consequences if war escalates

BAGHDAD — Political analyst Ramadan Badran warned that Iran may soon be forced to reassess its military strategy in the face of mounting Israeli strikes, saying the country is approaching a critical juncture.

“The question is when Iran will realize that it has hit rock bottom and no longer has the luxury of time,” Badran said during a televised interview with Utv. He predicted such a turning point could come “within days or weeks.”

Badran said the United States is not seeking regime change in Tehran, describing that outcome as “not an easy matter,” but argued the current objective is to force a strategic shift in Iran’s regional approach. “Ending the idea of expanding influence in the region,” he said, is the broader aim.

He described the ongoing conflict as “unequal,” asserting that “defensively and offensively, the advantage goes to Israel.” He pointed to what he called “a very large technological gap” and said Israel’s intelligence capabilities have left “the cards laid bare before it.”

According to Badran, Iranian leaders have failed to grasp the full extent of this imbalance. He warned that further escalation could bring devastating consequences, particularly if Israeli attacks begin targeting critical infrastructure.

“Iran will not be well,” he said.

Excerpts from Ramadan Badran’s interview with Utv:

The American objective does not reach the level of regime change in Iran; that is not an easy matter. What matters more is the regime’s way of thinking—namely, ending the idea of expanding influence in the region.

What concerns the United States is the protection of its allies in the region. Pakistan and Israel possess nuclear weapons, but they do not hold them for offensive purposes the way Iran is believed to intend with its weapons.

Israel is planning for the operation against Iran to last days or weeks. Without a doubt, if it extends to infrastructure—like targeting energy and water facilities—Iran will not be well.

The war is unequal. Defensively and offensively, the advantage goes to Israel. Expansion and escalation do not serve Iran.

There is a very large technological gap and disparity between Iran’s and Israel’s capabilities, which Iran seems not to have calculated. This is in addition to the intelligence gap that favors Israel, which roams across Iran and the cards are laid bare before it.

The question is when Iran will realize that it has hit rock bottom and no longer has the luxury of time, and realistically assess its capabilities—as Japan and Germany did at certain points, as Saddam did in the Safwan agreement. This critical historical stage represents a turning point for Iran after 45 years of its policy. When will Iran reach this stage? I believe it will happen soon—we don’t know exactly when, but it could be within days or weeks.