Iraq set for first autumn rainfall this week after prolonged dry spell

BAGHDAD — Iraq’s Department of Atmospheric Forecasting at the Meteorological Organization and Seismology said Tuesday that the country, including the Kurdistan Region, will see its first rainfall of the autumn season beginning Friday evening, ending an unusually dry start to the season.

The department said in its report that “weather model outputs indicate that the country is preparing to experience the first autumn instability case at the end of this week, marking the actual beginning of the rainy season.” The system is “caused by the movement of a cold air mass in the upper layers of the atmosphere accompanied by surface humidity extending from the Red Sea low-pressure system.”

According to the forecast, “rainfall chances begin Friday evening, starting in western areas and expanding to scattered regions across the country through Monday morning.” Rainfall is expected to range from light to moderate intensity, sometimes accompanied by thunderstorms, with possible heavy showers in limited parts of the north and a chance of light snow on mountain peaks.

Clouds will start forming Thursday night as skies turn “partly to fully cloudy in most cities,” the department said. Winds will “shift gradually to southeasterly” on Wednesday and are expected to strengthen Friday, “causing dust to rise in western regions before moving eastward on Saturday.”

The department added that after the rainfall, “temperatures will drop noticeably beginning Monday morning, bringing cool autumn weather during the day and colder conditions at night and early morning in most governorates.”

The expected rain marks the first precipitation in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region this autumn after several weeks of dry, warmer-than-normal weather, raising hopes for the start of the rainy season.

Iraq’s water reserves have plummeted in recent years, from 55 billion cubic meters in 2019 to less than four billion last month — only about 8% of capacity. Officials have warned that without careful management, the combined effects of climate change and upstream dam construction could further strain the country’s water supply and accelerate desertification.

In July, Iraq’s Ministry of Water Resources said the country was facing its worst drought since 1933, with reserves down to 8% of capacity after inflows from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers fell to 27% of 2023 levels. Officials warned the crisis, driven by low rainfall, climate change, and reduced flows from neighboring countries, threatens national water security and the southern marshlands. A water release agreement with Turkey has yet to be implemented.