Barbara Leaf and Iranian deputy foreign minister share stage to debate regional shifts

SULAYMANIYAH — Senior diplomats and regional experts convened Wednesday at the ninth annual Sulaimani Forum, hosted by the Institute of Regional and International Studies at the American University of Iraq–Sulaimani, to assess major geopolitical shifts reshaping the Middle East.

Central to the conversation was the strategic corridor linking Iran to the Levant, which panelists said is now undergoing changes that seemed unimaginable just a year ago.

The panel, moderated by Zeinab Badawi, president of SOAS, University of London, featured Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh; Ambassador Barbara A. Leaf of the Middle East Institute; Kurdistan Regional Government Interior Minister Rebar Ahmed Khalid; Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Gulf Research Center; and Dareen Khalifa of the International Crisis Group.

Ambassador Leaf spoke with rare optimism, describing what she called “a once-in-a-generation, maybe once-in-two-generation seismic change” in Syria and Lebanon.

“We saw a shift that has, in a sense, liberated both the Lebanese and the Syrian from huge internal burdens on their sovereignty,” she said. “In the form of Hezbollah and […] most oppressive of all, 50 years of Assad rule.”

While acknowledging the risks, Leaf emphasized the transition presents a unique opening.

“There are extraordinary opportunities there and equal measures of peril,” she said. “But the key states of the region, especially the neighbors, need to lean into the proposition of helping both the Lebanese and the Syrian peoples navigate this period of peril.”

Leaf warned, however, that without regional support, the odds of success remain slim.

“The challenges, the threats, the odds are against successful transitions in places of such extraordinary fragility, trauma,” she said. “But what a new world it is for the Syrian people, what a new world it is for the Lebanese people.”

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh offered a starkly different perspective, describing the regional situation as deeply concerning.

“The Middle East is the Middle East, probably the most internationalized region that international politics has ever seen,” he said. “What is happening right now is very alarming. The most important part is this naked language of force and the situation of permanent war that we are seeing in our region.”

He condemned what he described as ongoing lawlessness and conflict.

“This atrocity that we are seeing in Gaza in Palestine and also this lawlessness — or a post-pactome situation — that we are seeing in this region is very much alarming,” he said.

Reflecting on Iran’s past involvement in Syria, Khatibzadeh provided a rare account of discreet talks held in Berlin in 2013 with members of the Syrian opposition.

“At that time, it was not the best moment for Assad on the ground. We met five leading opposition figures,” he said. “I told them that we are very much concerned about the post-Assad situation in which occupation happens, in which ISIS takes over, in which non-Syrian extremist fighters get into power.”

He defended Iran’s cautious stance today, suggesting that the core problems remain unresolved.

“Do we see less occupation now in Syria? Israel is sitting 40 kilometers from Damascus,” he said. “Part of Syria is occupied by the United States, another part by Turkey. Any country under occupation cannot see flourishing, cannot see development, cannot see peace.”

While noting Iran’s hope for ‘inclusivity’ under new Syrian leadership, Khatibzadeh said, “Hope will result in frustration soon if we see all those concerns persist. We are sitting a little bit far from Syria right now, cautiously watching what is happening and supporting the Syrian people.”

Asked directly by moderator Zeinab Badawi whether Iran is destabilizing Syria, Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh sharply pushed back.

“Actually, I think that the question is not about Iran anymore,” he said. “Deviating from the question, the real question on the ground is not helping anybody. The question, I told you, is about the United States occupation, exploiting everything there and now, everything is in the hands of those who are supporting HTS and Ahmad Sharaa.”

Khatibzadeh insisted Iran had acted only ‘upon request’ of the Syrian government.

“We never are in a country to fight on behalf of the central government of that country. We are there to help on the request of the central government,” he said. “Accusations always come when frustration happens […] now, everything is in the hand of Ahmed Al-Sharaa and those who have sponsored him to be in power there. That’s it. Period.”

He continued, “Iran is not there. We are standing far from what is happening in Syria, cautiously watching […] Iran, again, is fully ready […] if there is any demand to help the Syrian Government to transform into a more better inclusive government.”

Leaf responded with a pointed critique, shifting the focus momentarily to Lebanon.

“Lebanon has suffered for 40 years from a parallel state and a predatory parallel state, which is Hezbollah,” she said. “Long after Israelis had left southern Lebanon, Hezbollah continued to operate as such, and is a threat to the sovereignty and agency of the state.”

Addressing Syria, Leaf added, “Iran supported the Assad regime […] in its quest to brutalize millions of Syrians.”

Referring directly to Khatibzadeh’s comments on occupation, she continued, “You have a lot to teach other countries about occupying and bringing proxies onto their soil, and we, as yet, have not been told by the government of Damascus that we are occupying Syrian soil.”

“We are helping contest ISIS,” Leaf said, “and we fostered the reconciliation and the rapprochement between the SDF and Damascus.”

Dareen Khalifa of the International Crisis Group highlighted intensifying rivalries among regional powers, warning Syria’s situation remains volatile.

“Syria is at the heart of these regional changes,” she said. “There’s the perception in the region today that a lot is up for grabs.”

She described Israel’s increasingly aggressive actions in Syria.

“Since Dec. 8 in particular, they’ve really doubled down on their kinetic approach. They’ve obliterated most of Syria’s military facilities,” she said. “They moved on the ground and occupied territory southwest of the Golan. They’ve called for a demilitarized zone… in essence, called for partitioning the country into zones of influence.”

Khalifa noted growing concern about Turkey’s ambitions as well.

“If there’s one thing a lot of Arab states, Israel, Iran, and even Russia might agree on, it’s their concern over growing Turkish influence in Syria,” she said.

She warned that the absence of direct communication increases the risk of escalation.

“Even with a deconfliction mechanism in place, absent a direct de-escalation channel between Ankara and Israel, and even between Syria and Israel, there’s a lot of room for things to spiral out of control,” she said.

Ambassador Leaf also addressed the polarizing figure of Ahmad al-Sharaa, describing him as pragmatic but noting significant tests lie ahead.

“He comes across as deeply pragmatic with even a touch of moderation,” she said. “Certainly a political leader, not simply a militia leader or military commander.”

Still, Leaf added caution: “He is going to be judged by how he responds to the many accumulating tests. This includes how he deals with security challenges, how he ensures accountability, and how real his commitment to inclusivity proves to be.”

Leaf pointed to recent violence on Syria’s coast as a troubling test case.

“There were terrible atrocities on the coast and assaults on innocent civilians […] That response to that was not directed by Damascus,” she said.

“He asserted control. He promised accountability. We’ll see,” she said.