Kurdistan Region elections: KDP dominates, PUK consolidates, and opposition recalibrates

The provisional results of the 2024 Kurdistan parliamentary election present a complex picture of the region’s political landscape going forward, with no party securing an outright majority or decisive victory. The newly introduced electoral system, which reduced the number of parliamentary seats from 111 to 100 and split the region into four constituencies, had a significant impact—especially on smaller parties—creating a more challenging environment and shifting political positions across the Kurdistan Region. Despite the changes, the election did not produce a clear winner nor produce a major recalibration among big parties.

KDP retains dominance despite seat loss

The Kurdistan Democratic Party emerged from the election as the largest political entity, though it lost several seats compared to the previous election: from 45 to an estimated 39.

Despite these setbacks, the party actually saw an increase in votes and vote share, further solidifying its dominant role in Kurdish politics. This mixed result highlights the KDP’s enduring popularity, even as it navigates the challenges posed by a new electoral framework.

PUK consolidated under Bafel Talabani’s leadership

The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan retained its position as the second-largest party, securing 23 seats—a gain of two compared to the 2018 election. This result is seen as a significant internal victory for the party, particularly under the leadership of Bafel Talabani. Following the death of party founder Jalal Talabani, the PUK was marked by internal divisions, with rival Lahur Sheikh Jangi posing a challenge to Bafel’s leadership. However, Talabani’s unconventional campaign and leadership have now positioned him as a unifying figure within the party. The election results indicate a stabilization of the PUK under his leadership.

Opposition reshuffles: New Generation rises, Gorran collapses

One of the most notable shifts in the election was the dramatic redistribution of votes among opposition parties. The Gorran (Change) Movement, once a powerful political force, saw its support evaporate, securing just one seat. The bulk of Gorran’s former support appears to have migrated to the New Generation Movement, which doubled its representation, jumping from 8 to 15 seats. The Helwest Movement, making its electoral debut, secured four seats. Helwest’s showing can be largely attributed to its leader, Ali Hama Saleh, a former Gorran MP who leveraged his popularity to build support for the new party.

Former PUK co-leader Lahur Sheikh Jangi’s new movement the People’s Front scored two seats.

Coalition dynamics: KDP and PUK likely to continue power-sharing

The KDP and PUK are expected to maintain their traditional coalition to form the next government, as neither party has secured enough seats to govern independently. The KDP dominates in the provinces of Duhok and Erbil, while the PUK holds sway in Sulaymaniyah. For both political and administrative reasons, it is highly unlikely that either party will be excluded from the coalition.

The division of main leadership roles—President (KDP), Prime Minister (KDP), and Speaker of Parliament (PUK)—are expected to remain unchanged. However, there may be some internal reshuffling of positions within the PUK, particularly for the roles of Vice President and Deputy Prime Minister.

Opposition strategy: New Generation likely to stay out of government

The New Generation Movement, having emerged as the primary opposition force, is unlikely to join the ruling coalition. Observers note the experience of the Gorran Movement, which lost much of its support after joining the government, as a cautionary tale. Gorran’s decline in influence was compounded by internal leadership crises, particularly following the death of its founder, Nawshirwan Mustafa. With this history in mind, the New Generation Movement and most other opposition parties are expected to remain outside the coalition, preserving their role as critics of the ruling bloc.

Islamist parties: Potential for inclusion

Meanwhile, the region’s Islamist parties may find themselves joining the new government. Though public messaging has been mixed from them in the days following the vote. The Kurdistan Islamic Union in particular took a drubbing in 2018 after joining the ruling parties in coalition, losing over half its seats.

Looking ahead

The 2024 elections have ushered in a redistribution of political power in the Kurdistan Region. While the KDP remains the largest party, the PUK has consolidated its position under new leadership, and the New Generation Movement has strengthened its role as the primary opposition force.