Analysts discuss Turkey’s military ambitions and Kurdish politics in Iraq

ERBIL — Turkish media outlets close to the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have been highlighting Baghdad’s recent designation of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) as a banned organization in Iraq, with Turkish officials carefully revealing plans for an extensive upcoming ground operation within Iraqi borders.

The military strategy, based on official statements and reports in the Turkish media, aims to establish a buffer zone curtailing PKK activities from Sulaymaniyah to Sinjar. However, the specifics of coordination with Baghdad, Erbil, and the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) remain unclear.

In an uncommon disclosure, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told CNN Türk that Ankara had reached an agreement with Falih Al-Fayyadh regarding Sinjar, noting Al-Fayyadh’s leadership of a state-funded official institution in Iraq.

Sources have informed 964media that the Turkish military’s actions are expected to “redraw regional balances,” affecting the dynamics between Erbil and Sulaymaniyah as well.

According to these sources. Iraq’s acknowledgment of the PKK as a prohibited entity marks “a significant and politically-charged development,” compelling all political entities, including the PMF and Kurdish groups, to navigate “a new set of regional dynamics.”

Turkey is seeking “a political agreement with the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan [PUK] to ease internal tensions within the Kurdistan Region,” aiming to soften the impact of the expected military operation on Sulaymaniyah areas.

The Kurdistan Democratic Party is “closely monitoring the unfolding situation in Sinjar,” especially as the military operation begins and the Popular Mobilization Forces become actively involved in the security pact between Baghdad and Ankara.

Yasin Aziz, a Kurdish political analyst, told 964media, “There are signs that Turkey has managed to impose a certain agenda on the Iraqi side, making the Kurdistan Workers’ Party a banned organization.”

“There is a clear shift in Iraq’s policy regarding dealing with this party, which has been present on Iraqi territory for about four decades,” Aziz said. He highlighted the ongoing Turkish military operations, especially over the last two years, and Turkey’s focus on preparing for a broader operation aimed at solidifying its military presence deep within Iraqi territory, particularly within the borders of the Kurdistan Region, extending 40 to 50 kilometers.

Aziz pointed out the geographical advantage Turkey has due to the proximity of its forces inside the Iraqi borders, directly linked to Turkish territories. Regarding Sinjar, where PKK members receive official internal support from the PMF, Aziz noted, “Any military operation there must have the approval of the Popular Mobilization Forces, in addition to the Iraqi government’s consent.”

“I doubt that the Iraqi parties will respond to Ankara’s demands for a large-scale operation in Sinjar because this area is of direct interest not only to the Iraqi side, whether the government, its official forces, or the Popular Mobilization Forces but also to Iran due to its strategic importance, given the tug-of-war between Iran and Turkey over many files on the Iraqi scene,” Aziz added.

Nasser Duraid, another political analyst, shared with 964media, “Turkey refuses to disclose all details of operations against the PKK in northern Iraq, to prevent the party’s members from moving.”

“Turkey has identified some points in Kurdistan for operations against the PKK, and according to Ankara’s government statements, the operations will be conducted 30 kilometers deep into Iraqi territory,” Duraid stated. He mentioned that all PKK members are located only in Mount Qandil, besides some withdrawing to Syria and Iran.

Duraid raised questions about the inclusion of Sulaymaniyah governorate in these operations, especially after Turkey’s recent statement about the PUK and its alleged links to groups Turkey claims are allies of the PKK, which could spark a real crisis on all fronts.